The Death Of Satellite Radio?

Here's an interesting post predicting the demise of satellite radio within two years.

The most compelling reason the author gives is the tanking economy, but speaking from personal experience -- I just use my computer to tune into radio stations. Between these free stations and free podcasts, I have all the streaming audio media I need.

As for premium sites like Howard Stern, etc. -- I think in the future, just like in the past, it will be deemed more profitable to simply present the programming for free and make money off of ad revenue and sponsorships. Though I think at that point, Howard will simply quit.

The Incredible Disappearing Media

I recently bought a new portable CD player.

Backwards, I know. I felt as if I was purchasing a Betamax.

But the battery was running out on my $250 iPod, didn't feel like replacing it/didn't know how to replace it. Was tired of only getting 15-20 mins worth of play before it conked out.

Also, couldn't stand the intermediate step of loading my old CDs on the iTunes.

I just wanted something tangible and immediate.

Enter: the portable CD player.

Or the VHS.

Or the record player.

With these devices, I feel as if I have some control over the media I use. They feel real, real like when you use clay figures to portray King Kong instead of computer animation. CDs have weight. Records have even more weight.

But the defining characteristic of future media is no weight. No mass, no weight, no discernible location.

Merely code and impulses streamed from one virtual location to another.

I think we lose something in the equation.

Question

Do you ever feel like things aren't going to be this way forever? By "forever" I mean -- within one's own lifetime, or even within one's thirties & forties.

I go through my day-to-day routine with little variations here and there, but basically I take certain things for granted. I get comfortable.

However, there really isn't any reason for me to be comfortable with the notion that everything is going to be the same. I think our ancestors were used to a degree of tumult and uncertainty. Things like wars sweeping through their villages, natural disasters, and food shortages.

But I can't help feeling that we are in a little bit of a bubble, here. And 7 times out of 10, if I bring this topic up, people get angry at me. The other 3 times it's like, "yeah, I was thinking the same thing!"

I think this bubble was created in the Post-War II era, and the baby boom generation received the biggest "bubbling" of all. Whereas with the younger generations these days, they sort of act like something's up. As for my generation, it's somewhat in the middle, but with a definite leaning towards being in the bubble. The Internet and video games have greatly facilitated this.

It makes me uncomfortable to be this pampered. The fact that I have the leisure time to just spend hours dicking around on the Internet, looking up video memes on YouTube, worries me greatly.

And yet, whenever I bring up more serious topics, or try to put away some emergency food & water, or anything like that, I face hostility and derision. Like it's such a crazy notion that for whatever reason we might not have access to water, or clean water, for a period of time. Even if it's just a day or two.

So, that wasn't so much of a simple question, as a question with a rant attached to it.

Currency

I don't see actual currency in the form of paper & metal sticking around past the next twenty years...probably less. I realize conspiracy theorists get caught up with this whole "one world currency/the Chip" theory...that there will only be microchips of some sort -- perhaps attached to the body -- that will keep track of all finances. I won't go that far, but it seems to me that eventually we will have all our currency tracked and distributed from debit card type things.

This bothers me in the sense that everything will probably be tied in on one huge account -- money in the bank, credit, taxes, parking tickets, debt, everything. Right now, there is a certain physical security in having material money, as unwieldy as things like coins tend to be. But where is the money when it is not physical, but figures on a database somewhere?

Anyway, this is what I think will happen.

The International American

I think Americans get a bad rap for being so nation-centric. We keep seeing people from other countries travel here, and we note their "funny" accents and strange cultures. It's easy being on the home team. We're here to stay.

But I predict that within 10 to 15 years -- perhaps less if things don't turn around for us economically -- going overseas (or across borders) for work and perhaps permanent residency will be more and more common for Americans. It will, for many people, be as much an option as traveling to another state.

I think this will especially be true for media, marketing, and science/medical jobs. Media and marketing, because even now there is a desire on the part of some overseas firms to "Westernize" their companies for global reach. And science/medical because America is lagging behind in these fields.

But it might not be so much field-oriented as simply wanting a better standard of living.

For example, whereas before Florida was the big place to go to retire, some seniors are considering Mexico. It's cheaper. Or, if you can telecommute to work, why not go to Argentina or Brazil? It might be more affordable to buy housing there.

I admit, this movement to get out of Dodge was more pronounced during the GWB administration -- but that was largely a protest against his policies. This new exodus of Americans will be less about ideology and more about dollars and cents.

To some people, I know that sounds as scary as hell. Since I'm pretty bad at learning new languages, it's scary for me too. But my mother assures me that our family house in Brazil might be a great place to go.

Anyway, this is just a guess.

The Worth Of Paper Collectibles In A Post-Paper World

In a post-paper world, will paper collectibles be worth more or less? When digital readers for a variety of media are perfected, will paper goods -- even ones deemed "rare" or "collectible" -- be seen as precious relics of an earlier time, or dinosaurs in the same vein as VHS?

There are a few things to consider here.

I think that those items that are already rare and in demand in the collector's market, such as Golden and Silver Age comic books, will still be valuable. Perhaps even more so, because their presence would remind us more than ever the passage of time -- of the paper we have largely left behind for digital slates and all-in-one Computer Phones we can tuck in our jacket pocket.

But as time passes, these precious books and periodicals will deteriorate further and further, their paper yellowing, then browning, then crumbling. Of course, the process will differ depending on the quality of paper used and the high-tech digs purchased for them. But these books will not last forever. They may reach a point where they can no longer even be handled without serious damage. Where is the fun with that?

Another thing to consider -- climate change and environmental fluctuations. Hurricanes, heat waves...you might have to start keeping those paper collectibles in an airtight and artificially cooled environment.

But I know collectors will try to hold on to these beloved tomes for as long as possible. And they could do it -- but in the future, it might get increasingly expensive to do so.

Here's the other side of the coin, however. Say, we accept the fragility and obsolescence of paper goods -- and we switch completely to digital. We scan all our original art and mementos and keep them as digital files. We hang whole collections of certain comic book series on our keychains, secreted as digital files within portable hard drives.

We do all this, and get rid of the paper.

Now something catastrophic happens, and now we don't have any electricity. Perhaps it's worse than a blackout. Maybe it's some sort of magnetic pole-shift. Maybe we have an extreme energy crisis. Who knows???

But now: we can't access our digital archives.

Who is the rich person then? The person who kept his home library of paper readables. The person who kept their set of National Geographics. The packrat who socked all those old newspapers away.

We might need those old newspapers. To prove we existed.

Something to think about.

A Preference For Audiobooks

I predict that within the next five-ten years we will see a marked preference by the mass market for audiobooks as opposed to books you have to read. This shift will fully take shape around the same time of the perfected digital reading interface, and will essentially be a "tag team" against paper media.

Why audiobooks? A couple of factors. People will have even less free time in the future to stop everything and read a book. And when they do have the time, they will be more likely to opt to surf the Internet on their all-in-one Entertainment Unit or their all-in-one Computer Phone (more on that later) than sit quietly and read Jane Eyre. But they are more willing to multi-task and listen to Jane Eyre.

Only...they are far less likely to read/listen to Jane Eyre than some light mass market novel or, better yet, some "self improvement" book. I predict that the Classics -- those heavy tomes filled with the best from days past -- will be largely relegated to the academic set. I mean -- who has the time? Who has the patience? Not the person reading 100 blogs a day on their feed reader. It will be harder and harder to convince the public that Silas Marner is a must-read for a rich, textured life.

But that is trending for another day.